Whither Bahrain?

Libya is not the only Arab revolution where outside forces have intervened; there are also foreign troops in Bahrain. Occupying forces from Saudi Arabia and the UAE are helping the monarchy put down a rebellion with only a few hypocritical murmurs from the West and no sign of UN-sponsored intervention. With martial law in place after two months of protests, Bahrain has today brushed off a Kuwaiti offer to mediate with the rebels saying it wasn’t necessary. The al-Khalifa regime is set on a path of destroying the opposition while the rest of the world is too distracted by events in Libya to do anything about it.

The Sunni Al Khalifa tribe has ruled Bahrain for almost 200 years, a rule cemented by British overlords and trade-based wealth in the 1800s. The majority Shia remained second class citizens despite the implicit and sometimes explicit support of Iran. The discovery of oil ensured British meddling would continue for much of the 20th century. Britain and Iran’s struggle for supremacy continued until Bahrain gained full independence in 1971. A 1973 constitution promised free elections (for men only) but this was thrown out two years later by emir Salman al Khalifa. In the 1990s opposition forces demanded reforms from the ageing emir and a return to the 1973 constitution. For six years the streets were plagued with riots which were suppressed by the regime. The intifada did not end until the death of Salman in March 1999. Hamad bin Isa Al-Khalifa succeeded his father and promised to carry out political reforms.

On February 14, 2001 a referendum to carry out the National Action Charter to return the country to constitutional rule was overwhelmingly supported by 98.4 percent of the voters. The 2000s saw the enfranchisement of women and parliamentary elections in 2006 and 2010. But problems remain including Shia discrimination and the pervasive power of the al Khalifa caste. Power sharing was thrown firmly into the spotlight after pro-democracy demonstrations in Tunisia and Egypt in January. Bahrain’s opposition was mobilised to demonstrate on the 10th anniversary of the National Action Charter on February 14. Manama’s Pearl Square became the epicentre of resistance with protesters calling for political reform and equalisation of the economic benefits of Bahrain’s oil-rich economy. The reaction from the alarmed administration was swift. On February 17 a pre-dawn tank raid on the square killed five and injured 230 others. Soldiers placed roadblocks and barbed wire around the centre of town and leaders banned public gatherings. Talk of reform was replaced by talk of overthrow of the hated al Khalifas. The funerals of the dead turned into shrines of martyrdom with 100,000 people on the streets – one eighth of the country’s population. Opposition unity was marred by sectarian clashes between Sunni and Shia. The panicky leadership made concessions by sacking extremist ministers while still authorising a shoot to kill policy on the streets.

On March 14, the Emir called for help from Sunni allies. Led by Saudi Arabia they answered the call. A thousand Saudi troops and 500 UAE police officers crossed the bridge to Manama. They were part of a deployment by the Gulf Co-operation Council, a six-nation regional grouping of Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar and UAE. The force protected the oil and gas plants and financial institutions. According to al-Khalifa, the troops were there “to look at ways to help them to defuse the tension in Bahrain.” But this was an occupation force to crush the revolution.

Hillary Clinton said Bahrain and its GCC allies were “on the wrong track” but mentioned nothing about the 5th fleet in its Bahrain base protecting US oil wealth in the region. The Khalifas may not be loved by their subjects but the White House knows a Shia government in Manama would not want 4500 US military personnel in the city. The Fifth Fleet is not there to create disorder but to preserve it. If the regime does fall, the Americans can have no complaints when they are kicked out.

House of Saud on the verge of a nervous breakdown

Sooner or later the protests that have racked the Middle East and North Africa will affect the most undemocratic regime of them all, Saudi Arabia. Arguably that has already happened. Absolute monarch King Abdullah is now 86. Aware of his own vulnerability, he gave away over $36 billion in benefits to lower and middle income Saudis last week. He also granted thousands of civil servants job security and said he would reshuffle the cabinet. Abdullah rushed back to the country after months of hospitalisation and recuperation in the US and Morocco to make these announcements. No one is under any illusion he wasn’t panicked into action by the wave of protests across the region that threatened to roll across his equally undemocratic border.

Abdullah’s bribery will keep the protesters at home for now and the illegality of political parties and public protest are a deterrent. Yet resistance to the power of the Sauds is growing slowly.

The Saudiwoman blog says the country is “still on the train heading to revolution town.” The young are unhappy with large-scale unemployment and the conservative grip of the religious police, she said.

Older generations are fed up with the corruption, nepotism and the disappearance of the middle class.Activists are calling for protests on 11 and 20 March but may be frustrated by police. They stymied two attempts to stage protests in Jeddah last month arresting 30 to 50 people. Saudi blogger Ahmed al-Omran said authorities were watching closely what people were saying on Facebook and Twitter. “They are anxious as they are surrounded with unrest and want to make sure we don’t catch the bug,” al-Omran said. 

Western leaders are also keen the Saudis don’t catch the bug. In 2007 British foreign office minister Kim Howells infamously talked about Britain and Saudi Arabia’s “shared values”. Meanwhile in October 2010, the US Obama Administration kept the Carter Doctrine alive with the sale of $60.5 billion worth of arms to the KSA which was the biggest arms sale in American history. According to an Israeli study of the sale, the package was totally offensive in nature, with its attack planes, helicopters, and “bunker-buster” bombs, and designed to show the US would stand strongly by its allies. ‘US officials have also begun to refer to the “Persian Gulf” as the “Arabian Gulf,” a hot-button issue for the Iranians,’ the study said.

The financial world is also less interested in the democratic desires of ordinary Saudis than the fate of light sweet crude oil futures. Crude was trading at $97.25 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange yesterday having spiked since the start of the year. This has more to do with Libya and issues in Oman and Bahrain but Saudi Arabia remains pivotal to production with the world’s largest reserves. Saudi Aramco have stepped up production since the Libyan revolution started but as the Financial Times points out, oil-dominated economies create few jobs, “especially if they support a bloated royal family that affects not to understand where a privy purse ends and a public budget begins”.

Abdullah’s successor in the agnatic seniority preferred by 7000-strong royal family is his half-brother Crown Prince Sultan. Sultan, 82 or possibly 86, is just as old, just as unhealthy and just as corrupt as Abdullah. Behind them comes the conservative autocrat Prince Nayef who abhors the idea of reform. The monarchy survived the 20th century thanks to the black gold they controlled and their alliance with the Wahhabists who control religious affairs. The end of the carbon economy would have killed them anyway but with everyday Saudis unwilling to wait, the days of authority of both these ancient institutions are likely to be numbered.

BP’s Tony Hayward likely to be oil spill’s Top Kill

The most relieved man in the world today is BP’s CEO Tony Hayward. Israel’s Mediterranean piracy has knocked his knackered Gulf of Mexico pipeline off the front page of the news. Hayward’s relief, like all the attempts to fix the Deepwater Horizon rig since it exploded, is likely to temporary and unsuccessful. The US Government and BP shareholders are both likely to demand Hayward’s head on a pike for the worst American environmental disaster of all time.

The blowout of the Deepwater Horizon in a deadly methane explosion six weeks ago killed 11 people, injured 17 others and sank the rig that drilled the deepest oil well ever 9,100 metres below the surface. Thanks to the incredible pressure of the ocean floor, it is now spewing out 16 million litres a day for a total of almost 4.2 million barrels of oil since April 20. At the current price of $72 a barrel, it amounts to $290 million of oil in the ocean, not to mention the environmental costs. (photo AP)

Hayward has blundered from one pathetic excuse to another as the damage bill rises. BP still has no idea how to plug the leak. The series of exotically named and increasingly desperate rescue methods it tried have all failed. These included the “Top Hat”, the “Junk Shot” and the “Hot Tap” (which all provided wonderful fodder for Jon Stewart). The latest called the “top kill” failed on Saturday. In this method BP tried to pump large amounts of drilling mud into the blowout preventer faster than the pressure of the rising oil and gas could push it back out. It didn’t work and other risky options are now being considered none of which have a great chance of success.

With all conventional and unconventional means proving fruitless, serious organs such as Oil-Price.net are suggesting a subterranean nuclear explosion may be the only solution. They say the Russians have done it at least five times. In Uzbekistan in 1966, the Soviet Union put out a 120 metre tall flame which had been burning for three years fuelled by massive natural gas using a 30 kiloton atom bomb. The explosion sealed the well by displacing tonnes of rock over the spill.

While the nuclear option sounds preposterous, it may be the only thing between the Gulf of Mexico and Armageddon. This is developing into one of the world’s most serious environmental catastrophes. In the view from space it looks as if a gigantic bird has shat on the Gulf. A vast whitened plume is headed straight for the Mississippi Delta and its fragile wetlands could be destroyed. The Google maps app “in perspective” allows you to centre the spill on any point in the globe to see how big the spill would look there. Centred on London the spill takes in all of East Anglia and the south coast across to Bristol.

Centring the spill on London is appropriate as it has the headquarters of BP. Founded 101 years ago as the Anglo-Persian Oil Company it became one of the largest companies in the world by seizing Iranian Oil for 70 years until it was thrown out by the Ayatollahs in 1979. Consistently named as one of the ten worst companies in the world it has suffered crisis after crisis with its Texas City Refinery explosion in 2005, Prudhoe Bay Alaskan oil spill in 2007 and its hook-up with Russian criminal billionaires in the TNK-BP joint venture.

But it survived them all unscathed. During the Bush era, BP seemed to stand for “Beyond Prosecution”. Deepwater Horizon promised more untold riches for the company. The Gulf rig was in the rich Tiber fields estimated to contain up to 6 billion barrels of oil. BP owns three fifths of Tiber and when it announced the discovery of oil last year, their share price rose 4.3 percent in the middle of the recession.

Now the share market has turned against the British monolith. Shares in the company fell 15 percent yesterday and the FTSE 100 fell by more than 100 points. London cares only about profits and is merely worried the crisis “won’t be solved until August”, the month stockbrokers go on holidays. Nuclear explosion or no, the longer term prognosis in the Gulf is poor. Four hundred bird species are at risk as are the already threatened loggerhead turtles. Sea birds, dolphins and other mammals could be affected if as is likely, the spill escapes into the Atlantic. The livelihood of poverty-stricken coastal Central Americans is threatened. Fishing and tourism across the region will also take the brunt. On the bright side, it may waver the US’s unquestioning faith in the oil industry.

Americans are slowly awakening to the bitter truth that peak oil is swamping their Gulf.

Danger far from over in Shen Neng 1 Barrier Reef oil spill

A grounded coal ship on the Great Barrier Reef could spill more oil onto the reef if the vessel is refloated too soon. Maritime Safety Queensland says a hydrostatic plug caused by the pressure of the ocean water is preventing oil escaping from the ship’s engine room. This plug may give way if the breach in the tank is not repaired before refloating. MSQ general manager Patrick Quirk said today they needed to assess the vessel’s remaining strength before consider salvage options.

The 230m-long bulk coal carrier Shen Neng 1 ran aground at Douglas Shoal 70km east of Great Keppel Island at 5.10pm on Saturday. The ship left Gladstone bound for China with a crew of 23, 65,000 tonnes of coal and 975 tonnes of heavy fuel oil. It was off course 120km east of Rockhampton in a protected area, well outside normal shipping channels. The 150 tonne fuel tank is ruptured and heavy seas are driving the ship further into the fragile reef area. Shen Neng 1 owners Chinese COSCO Group is one of the largest shipping companies in the world with 500 vessels.

Queensland Premier Anna Bligh has threatened fines of $1 million for the company and a further $200,000 for the captain for straying into the off-limits area. The owners could also be liable for the multi-million dollar clean up, though as Queensland found out last year in the Pacific Adventurer case, there is an upper limit set by international maritime convention.

The ship’s captain initially told MSQ no oil had spilled. The impact, he said, created a hole in the ship’s lower hull 40m from the nearest oil storage area. The captain said he would try to refloat the ship after midnight. MSQ worked with the Australian Maritime Safety Authority and the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority to coordinate the emergency response.

AMSA airlifted surveyors aboard to assess the ship’s condition. Emergency surveillance aircraft inspected the scene at first light. A long-range helicopter came from Bundaberg to take specialist response personnel to the vessel.At 2am Sunday, the oil advice to MSQ had changed. There was an unknown amount of oil in the water, though the media release did not say who provided this advice or how it squared with the captain’s earlier statement about the hole being 40m away from oil storage.

The advice kicked off a national oil spill response plan. MSQ asked the GBRMPA for permission to use aerial dispersants on the oil leak. Response crews were activated in Brisbane, Gladstone and Rockhampton. MSQ’s vessel Norfolk was dispatched from Heron Island for logistical support.

By daylight on Easter Sunday it was clear from the air there were oil patches in the waters south-east of the ship. MSQ said at 8.30am there was “no major loss of oil”. The carrier was aground on a shoal and would need salvage crews to get it off. A light aircraft from Rockhampton arrived midmorning to spray chemical dispersant. Early arrival was critical as dispersants are most effective in breaking up heavy oil when deployed within the first two days.

A second aircraft arrived mid-afternoon yesterday to spray what MSQ called “a ‘ribbon’ of oil measuring approximately three kilometres by 100 metres.” MSQ staff reported small volumes of oil near the ship but its persistent nature meant it could take some time to break apart. Modelling showed oil could wash up around the nearby Shoalwater Bay military area within two days, depending on weather.

The most recent MSQ update at 6am today reported salvors were aboard the Shen Neng 1 to begin the salvage process. The main engine room was breached, the main engine damaged and the rudder seriously damaged. With reported two metre swells in the area, the ship was still moving on the reef causing further damage. The long term consequences to the fragile reef are yet to be fully felt.

Trafigura: the ugly face of capitalism

The latest in Trafigura’s sordid attempts to gag British media occurs today when the high court issues its judgement on the libel action the company took out on the BBC. Trafigura is the notorious oil and commodities trading company responsible for 15 deaths and injuries of thousands of West Africans after it dumped oil waste. Trafigura is the world’s third-biggest private oil trader, and declared $440m profit last year. Its 200 traders receive annual bonuses of up to $1m each. But it is highly sensitive to criticism and sued BBC’s flagship current affairs show Newsnight for telling the truth they were responsible for murder. The Guardian, a victim of several Trafigura legal actions, says the BBC case was one of a series of legal threats against the media in several countries.

(Photo: AFP/GETTY)

Their most reprehensible order came in October when Trafigura made an extraordinary attempt to stop the Guardian from reporting on parliament. The attempt backfired after it ignited a Twitter firestorm and lawyers Carter-Ruck withdrew the injunction within 24 hours. Trafigura were trying to stop publication of a report they commissioned about their dumping of toxic waste in the Ivory Coast. Twelve people died and 31,000 people were injured as a result of their illegal dumping of a by-product of coker naphtha in 2006.

After repeatedly denying liability, Trafigura eventually paid an out-of-court settlement more than $50m to 30,000 inhabitants of Ivory Coast’s largest city Abidjan. Trafigura engaged Carter-Ruck again to bring the libel action against the BBC on the basis the company had been wrongly accused of causing deaths, not just sickness. This was despite official pronouncements by a UN investigator, and Ivorian and British government which referred to deaths being caused directly by the dumping. Trafigura got away with this because of the settlement it struck with another British law firm Leigh Day which led the class action acted on behalf of the Ivorians. The eventual compensation resulted in an agreed statement making no claims about deaths.

The original problem was a result of western greed and lax Third World safety standards. In 2005 Trafigura bought dirty oil contaminated with coker naphtha from Mexico for next to nothing to clean it and sell it on for profit. The cleaning process involves pouring tonnes of caustic into the coker naphtha but this generates dangerous and deadly waste such as hydrogen sulphide. The process is so dangerous, it is banned in most western countries.

African countries are less strict. Trafigura chartered a ship to Abidjan where they illegally fly-tipped 15 locations around the city. In the following weeks tens of thousands of people reported a range of similar symptoms, including breathing problems, sickness and diarrhoea. In September 2009 BBC Newsnight revealed it had uncovered email evidence to show Trafigura bosses knew the waste dumped in Ivory Coast was hazardous. The BBC was backed up by a UN report which found “strong prima facie evidence that the reported deaths and adverse health consequences are related to the dumping of the waste from the cargo ship”.

The Minton Report which exposed the dumping and blamed Trafigura remains off-limits to British media due to injunctions. According to Wikileaks which is keeping access open to the report, the illegal Ivorian dumping is “possibly most culpable mass contamination incident since Bhopal.”

Trafigura released a disengenuous statement on 16 October to dispel “further misunderstandings” of what happened in Abidjan. They attempted to discredit the Minton Report (which they commissioned) on the basis of its “hypothetical ideas”, the fact no visits were made to Ivory Coast and its analysis was overtaken by field analysis by the Netherlands Forensic Institute. Though it doesn’t say whether the NFI analysis contradicted Minton, it is highly unlikely it did, given it was used as a basis to settle the class action.

But here’s to Trafigura’s failure. Their dishonesty, greed, selfishness and contempt of public opinion deserve the widest possible audience and criminal action. They represent capitalism at its venial worst.

Timor Sea oil slick may now be lapping Indonesian shores

The West Timor Care Foundation has sent the Australian Greens a video claiming the 10-week Montara oil spill is now lapping the south shores of Timor. The five minute video shows oil slicks and dead fish in local fishing grounds (though when I entered the location coordinates shown in the video it came up in Philippine waters). The government doubts the slick has approached the Indonesian coastline and has announced no compensation measures as yet.

The Montara spill is a major catastrophic event happening out of reach of Australian news cameras. From 21 August to 3 November a possible 140,000 barrels of light crude oil, gas and condensate leaked into the sea. Owners PTTEP claimed the well leaked 400 barrels of oil a day but couldn’t confirm this estimate. The Australian government said the maximum flow could be 2000 barrels a day. After four unsuccessful attempts, it was eventually plugged when heavy mud was injected into the underground leaking well. The spill was complicated by a major fire on the rig two days earlier.

The vast amount of oil leaked into the sea continues to cause havoc. West and East Timor authorities have asked Australia to take urgent actions to stop the impact on their island. The governor of East Nusa Tenggara (Indonesian West Timor) said Australia must take “immediate measures” to halt the spill. East Timorese President Jose Ramos Horta says the slick is impacting fishermen’s livelihood and has requested compensation from Australia.

The Montara wellhead on the West Atlas rig is in Australian waters 250km northwest of the Truscott air base in Western Australia’s Kimberley region and 250km from the south Timor coastline. The rig is owned by Thai based oil company PTT Exploration and Production Public Company (known as PTTEP) and run by its Australian subsidiary PTTEP Australasia Company Limited (PTTEP AA).

The problem started when a concrete plug 2.6km below the ocean floor cracked open leaking sweet crude oil, gas and condensate into the Timor Sea. The cause has not yet been made public however an unnamed industry insider told WAtoday.com PTTEP knows the reason. The source was working for PTTEP near the West Atlas rig on the day the leak occurred. He said one of six wells they were drilling began to leak because the company took corners by not plugging the well securely when they did not expect oil flow.

The company went into panic mode as desperate efforts failed to plug the leak. After three failed attempts, they invited Texan well control company Boots & Coots to review their operation. Local industry companies Woodside, Inpex, Vermillion, AGR Petroleum Services and Apache also became involved on a “without prejudice” basis (to avoid liability) as the reputation of the Australian oil drilling industry plummeted. The rig caught fire on the fourth attempt and took three days to put out. The leak was plugged by steering a drill through rock 2.6km below the seabed to a 25cm diameter pipe.

Resource Minister Martin Ferguson announced an inquiry headed by former senior public servant David Borthwick. The terms of reference are to report on the causes, the adequacy of the regulatory regime in response, the performance of those carrying out the response, environmental impacts and PTTEP’s role. Borthwick will have six months to investigate. The Australian Marine Conservation Society said the oil slick will leave a legacy for decades and called on the government to impose heavy sanctions and penalties.

Greens Senator Rachel Siewert is concerned the consequential impacts to Indonesia and East Timor may be outside Borthwick’s terms of reference. Minister Ferguson claims the spill is over 200kms from the Indonesian coastline. Siewart called on the government to investigate the Timorese reports of oil contamination for links to the Montara rig. “Australians expect that we will do the right thing by our near neighbours,” she said. “The Prime Minister needs to promise that he will ensure the company takes responsibility for impacts outside of Australian waters.”